Fateme Mohammadipour

No big change of tack in Turkish foreign policy after coup

August 30, 2016 - 20:31

Mike Hollingsworth, instructor at the University of South Alabama, believes Fethullah Gülen's issue "is unlikely to have a significant effect on Turkish-American relations since the countries are strong allies and the United States and NATO fully support Turkey."

He adds, "I believe the changes to Turkish foreign policy will be slight however, and will not drastically affect relationships with other countries or NATO as a whole."


In what follows, the academic figure has answered a couple of questions on the latest regional developments in the Middle East.


Q: Do you believe that Turkey's foreign policy will change now that the country is emerging from coup moments?


A:  I believe that after the coup, there will be some adjustments to Turkish foreign policy. We’ve already seen them offer use of airfields to Russian forces, and we have also seen a purge of many judicial, educational, military, and religious personnel.  I believe the changes to Turkish foreign policy will be slight however, and will not drastically affect relationships with other countries or NATO as a whole. We are more likely to see internal changes in Turkey rather than changes in the way they deal with other countries. 


Q: Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said, Russia could, if necessary, use the Incirlik base. Will these statements damage Turkey's relations with NATO?


A: Yildirim’s offer for the Russians to use Incirlik is interesting and I’m not sure many people were expecting this. Russia currently has not taken Turkey up on this offer, but there some need since Russian medium bombers will no longer be operating out of Iran. If Russia were to operate out of Incirlik, this might cause some strain among troops stationed at the base, but is unlikely to affect Turkish relations with NATO over time.  Members of NATO have made it clear that Turkey is an important ally and closer ties with the Russians will not change this.  It does make some of the other NATO countries a little skittish, but this is a function of Turkey attempting to establish closer ties with Russia and not directly related to the offer to use the airbase.  NATO is wary of Russia due to recent aggressive actions by the country, but if anything this is strengthening NATO rather than diminishing the strength of the alliance.  


Q: Do you think improving relations between Iran and Turkey after the coup will make inroads into the Syrian crisis?


A: While the Turkish-Iranian relationship has improved somewhat after the coup, it is doubtful that this will be particularly helpful in dealing with problems in Syria.  Iranian forces would face difficulties in combat operations, but would specifically have problems being integrated into current operational planning and the actual operations of coalition forces for a variety of reasons. They have not been part of operational planning and have no history of working with coalition forces including United States or regional military forces. This would limit their usefulness in helping to resolve the conflict in Syria. Iran continues to contribute to the fight against the Islamic State in certain geographic areas, but integrating forces into operations in and near Syria are more problematic.  I do not see improved relations as contributing to the resolution of the conflict in Syria. 


Q: How bilateral ties between the U.S. and Turkey will be influenced by Fethullah Gülen's extradition?


A: The Turkish government has been trying to extradite Gulen for years now, and the United States is unlikely to hand him over to Turkey now.  The Secretary of State made it clear that the request would have to go through the normal administrative channels and there is no reason the United States will decide to extradite him without clear and convincing evidence that he was involved in illegal activities. This evidence is lacking and the United States will not extradite individuals for political prosecution. Fortunately, this is unlikely to have a significant effect on Turkish-American relations since the countries are strong allies and the United States and NATO fully support Turkey. The Turkish government, or certain elements of it would like to have him extradited, but I do not feel this is a priority for them therefore it is unlikely to cause much strain in the relationship between the two countries.

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